posted by 4x-news on Feb 16
The Market Oracle, an online financial publication, has done even better, preparing a one-year forecast for all of the major currencies along with a detailed analysis of the major factors driving each currency in the month of February. The Dollar and Yen are projected to be the strongest performers in this time frame, benefiting from a trend towards risk aversion. It should be noted that this prediction is consistent with news reported by the Forex Blog earlier this week. On the other hand, currencies that have been propped up by the Yen carry trade, namely those of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa, will face selling pressure. The British Pound is projected to underperform slightly, due to an easing of British monetary policy, which will narrow the interest rate advantage claimed over the US.
Finally, the Euro is something of a wildcard. On the one hand, the EU economy is stagnating, and the ECB has hinted that rate cuts are a possibility. On the other hand, the Euro theoretically stands to inherit a significant amount of risk-averse capital, especially from foreign investors looking for a stable alternative to the Dollar. Accordingly, the Market Oracle forecasts a short-term decline in the value of the Euro but a long-term appreciation.
posted by 4x-news on Sep 27
Forex Capital Markets LLC, the largest Forex Dealer Member, recently announced that it would begin offering so-called “Fractional Pip Pricing” in an effort to reduce the bid-ask spreads it offers customers. Previously, most, if not all forex brokers that cater to retail forex investors, quoted forex rates out to four decimal places (i.e. 1.4101 USD/Euro). However, due to its strong liquidity relationships with banks that facilitate forex trading, FXCM has negotiated tighter bid-ask spreads for its customers, which will enable it to quote exchange rates to five decimal places (i.e. 1.41007 USD/Euro. While FXCM expects to narrow spreads further in the future, it remains to be seen whether the competition will follow suit.
posted by 4x-news on Sep 21
At 4:30 AM UK August Retail Sales m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.7%)
UK August Retail Sales y/y (exp 4.0%, prev 4.4%)
At 8:30 AM US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 321k, prev 319k)j
At 10:00 AM US August Leading Indicators (exp -0.2%, prev 0.4%)
At 12:00 PMUS September Philadelphia Fed Survey (exp 2.3, prev 0.0)
The greenback holds steady against the majors heading into the Thursday session, continuing to recover following the post-FOMC selloff. The dollar is trading just beneath the 1.40-barrier against the euro and near 2.0020 versus the sterling. We expect the 50-basis point Fed rate cut to weigh on the greenback over the coming weeks and foresee the currency to tumble to fresh lows against the euro and fall closer toward parity versus the Canadian dollar.
Economic data from the US in the coming session will include weekly jobless claims, August leading indicators and the September Philadelphia Fed survey. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to edge up slightly to 321k, from 319k from the previous week. August leading indicators are seen falling by 0.2%, compared with a 0.4% increase from July. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed survey is forecasted to improve to 2.3 for September, up from a flat reading in August.
