posted by 4x-news on Sep 21
At 4:30 AM UK August Retail Sales m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.7%)
UK August Retail Sales y/y (exp 4.0%, prev 4.4%)
At 8:30 AM US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 321k, prev 319k)j
At 10:00 AM US August Leading Indicators (exp -0.2%, prev 0.4%)
At 12:00 PMUS September Philadelphia Fed Survey (exp 2.3, prev 0.0)
The greenback holds steady against the majors heading into the Thursday session, continuing to recover following the post-FOMC selloff. The dollar is trading just beneath the 1.40-barrier against the euro and near 2.0020 versus the sterling. We expect the 50-basis point Fed rate cut to weigh on the greenback over the coming weeks and foresee the currency to tumble to fresh lows against the euro and fall closer toward parity versus the Canadian dollar.
Economic data from the US in the coming session will include weekly jobless claims, August leading indicators and the September Philadelphia Fed survey. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to edge up slightly to 321k, from 319k from the previous week. August leading indicators are seen falling by 0.2%, compared with a 0.4% increase from July. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed survey is forecasted to improve to 2.3 for September, up from a flat reading in August.
posted by 4x-news on Sep 19
The dollar slumped across the board after the Fed cut federal funds rate half a percentage point to 4.75%. The unanimous decision surprised the majority of the market who had expected a rate cut of only 25 basis points.
The FOMC statement showed the rate cut is designed to forestall adverse economic effects. The Fed will continue to monitor effects and act as needed. It also stated that readings on core inflation have modest improvement and tightening of credit conditions may intensify housing correction.
Against the dollar, the euro broke the 1.39 handle easily and rose up to an all-time high at 1.3980. The dollar dropped 50 pips instantly to 115.25 versus the yen after the FOMC announcement. The rate cut fueled the stock rally and also gold surged to a 28-year high on that.
posted by 4x-news on Sep 17
apan’s Market Closed for Holiday
At 5:00 AM Eurozone July Trade Balance (exp 6.8 bln euros, prev 7.8 bln euros)
At 8:30 AM US September NY Fed Manufacturing (exp 18.0, prev 25.06)
The greenback remains mixed against the majors, mired near all-time lows versus the euro around 1.3865 but firmer against the yen and the sterling. The week will kick off to a slow start with the Japanese market closed in observance of the Respect for the Elderly Day holiday. The primary focus among traders will be the FOMC monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, in which market participants are anticipating a 25-basis point rate cut to 5.00%.
While an FOMC rate cut this week is not a foregone conclusion, recent deterioration in US economic fundamentals have raised speculation that the Fed will need to preempt a potential recession by easing policy to stimulate the economy. However, board members have delivered conflicting messages, with some maintaining their mantra of keeping inflationary pressure in check. It will be interesting to see whether the Fed responds to market calls for a cut while concurrently tempering inexorable expectations for further easing over the coming months. If a 25-basis point reduction does materialize on Tuesday, Bernanke will likely perform a balancing act between quelling burgeoning recessionary fears and containing runaway expectations for a series of rate cuts – given lingering concerns from Board members about inflation.
