posted by 4x-news on Oct 1

One of the advantages of trading currencies (compared to other types of securities) is that forex markets operate continuously from 6PM (US Eastern time) Sunday to 4PM Friday. However, some traders may find this overwhelming. After all, if the markets never close, how should one decide when to trade? Let’s begin with a quick overview. London dominates worldwide forex trading, with New York in second place, followed by Tokyo and Sydney. Investopedia points out that the best time(s) to trade are when these markets overlap, due to a surge in liquidity, and hence, volatility. The best such overlap is between London and New York, due to the popularity of the Euro/USD pair. During these times, the “Pip” spread can widen from 30 to 70. However, since Tokyo dominates trading in Asian currencies, its overlap with Sydney is also a prime time to trade. Forbes reports:

When more than one of the four markets are open simultaneously, there will be a heightened trading atmosphere, which means there will be greater fluctuation in currency pairs.

posted by 4x-news on Sep 5

Everyone has a theory to explain the Dollar’s explosive rally, which has yet to run out of steam. A recent one identifies a shift in China’s forex reserve policy as a driving force. Apparently, in an ostensible effort to clamp down on inflation, the Central Bank of China is resorting to draconian measures. One rule change, which was executed with both speed and lack of media coverage, requires commercial banks to hold a larger portion of their reserves in Dollars, rather than Chinese Yuan. In addition, such banks face new restrictions on foreign debt, which is designed to turn them into net buyers of Dollars. Analysts suggest that this policy represents a roundabout attempt to slow the appreciation of the Chinese Yuan. If they are correct, than surely the Central Bank of China has succeeded, for the currency has virtually ceased in its interminable upward march against the Dollar. This upshot suggests that the goal of the Central Bank was not to fight inflation, but rather to avoid a post-Olympic economic slowdown. The Telegraph reports:

They are now more worried about growth than overheating, and you are seeing that play out in the currency markets. There has been a remarkable change of view.”

posted by 4x-news on Sep 2

John Taylor is head of the world’s largest currency hedge fund, International Foreign Exchange Concepts. Accordingly, when he speaks about currencies, people tend to listen. In an extended interview with Bloomberg News, Taylor noted that volatility has surged in the forex markets. On average, the Dollar is fluctuating 46% more against so-called major currencies and 23% more than emerging currencies, compared to 2007. However, this volatility is largely random- perhaps as a result of increased liquidity- which means inefficiencies in the markets are becoming harder to exploit and profit from. One of the fund’s largest bets is against the US Dollar, specifically against the Euro. Taylor’s rationale for this bet is nuanced, and is more fundamental than technical, which is surprising given his fund’s primary trading strategy. Bloomberg News reports:

The prediction is partly based on his charts of the U.S. real estate cycle, which he says has a major impact on the dollar and will continue to point south for the next couple of years, dragging down the currency with it. He also says the price of a barrel of crude oil might reach $250 in 2011, further eroding the strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar.

posted by 4x-news on Aug 12

As the Chinese Yuan has appreciated over the last three years, and even in the decade leading up to the sudden revaluation, a tremendous amount of speculative “hot money” poured into China. Periodically, the government and Central bank have attempted to stem some of these inflows by creating deliberately unfavorable conditions for foreigners to invest in China. Witness the unnaturally low interest rates and the one-way convertibility of the Chinese Yuan. Now, with inflation running at a 10-year high, the government is becoming more serious in its efforts to clamp down on some of the factors that are driving demand. As a result, it altered its system for governing forex and will increase its oversight over the entities and businesses that import capital into China. If executed properly, much of the upward pressure on prices, and the RMB itself, could be relieved. Reuters reports:

NEW RULES: China operates “a managed float exchange rate system based on supply and demand”.

OLD RULES: China has “a single exchange rate system” with the central bank announcing the yuan’s value against major currencies on a daily basis.

posted by 4x-news on Jun 30

The Indian Rupee has fallen to a 14-month low as a result of the sagging Indian stock market and surging inflation. Foreign investors have withdrawn $5.7 Billion from the Indian stock market in the first half of 2008, reinforcing the 30% drop in stock prices that occurred over the same time period. Meanwhile, the nation’s benchmark inflation rate has risen to the highest level in nearly 13 years, and investors are clamoring for the Royal Bank of India to do more. The RBI has already raised interest rates as well as intervening on the Rupee’s behalf in forex markets, as indicated by data on the RBI’s foreign exchange reserves. Both moves were explicitly aimed at combating inflation, but may also carry the unavoidable consequence of stunted economic growth. The Rupee will likely continue to be caught in the slipstream. Bloomberg News reports:

“The rupee is under pressure to weaken because the losses in the stock market are raising concern about capital outflows. The currency could fall further if not for support from the central bank.”