posted by 4x-news on Sep 2
John Taylor is head of the world’s largest currency hedge fund, International Foreign Exchange Concepts. Accordingly, when he speaks about currencies, people tend to listen. In an extended interview with Bloomberg News, Taylor noted that volatility has surged in the forex markets. On average, the Dollar is fluctuating 46% more against so-called major currencies and 23% more than emerging currencies, compared to 2007. However, this volatility is largely random- perhaps as a result of increased liquidity- which means inefficiencies in the markets are becoming harder to exploit and profit from. One of the fund’s largest bets is against the US Dollar, specifically against the Euro. Taylor’s rationale for this bet is nuanced, and is more fundamental than technical, which is surprising given his fund’s primary trading strategy. Bloomberg News reports:
The prediction is partly based on his charts of the U.S. real estate cycle, which he says has a major impact on the dollar and will continue to point south for the next couple of years, dragging down the currency with it. He also says the price of a barrel of crude oil might reach $250 in 2011, further eroding the strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar.
posted by 4x-news on Mar 22
In a thinly disguised effort to stem the appreciation of its currency, Brazil has announced sweeping changes to its rules governing forex. Rather than revert to outright intervention in the forex markets, however, Brazil will permit businesses to hold more foreign currency as part of their reserves. In this way, the Central Bank won’t have to purchase Dollar-denominated assets directly. Instead, it is hoping that the natural attraction of US and other Western capital markets will be enough to drive private Brazilian companies to increase their holdings abroad. It is intended that this will act against the upward pressure on the Real, which rose 20% against the Dollar in 2007, and 5% already in 2008, and now threatens to drag down the economy. Dow Jones reports:
The strong real has made some Brazilian manufactured exports such as textiles and footwear less competitive. Meanwhile, it also has introduced a boom in imports resulting in a narrowing of the country’s trade surplus.
posted by 4x-news on Jan 12
The dollar tumbled against the euro, breaching the 1.48-level in the face of sharply divergent comments from each respective central bank’s chief. ECB President Trichet hinted at further tightening on the back of Eurozone economic strength, while Fed Chairman Bernanke offered a somber assessment of the economy and raised expectations for a 50-basis rate cut at the next policy meeting.
Chairman Bernanke said the Fed stands ready to take “substantive action” to support growth and that further easing “may well be necessary” in light of risks to growth. While the December jobs data was disappointing, Bernanke said it would be a mistake to read too much into one report. Nevertheless, he feels the baseline outlook for 2008 has deteriorated and the downside risks are now more pronounced. Further, Bernanke said that inflation expectations remain reasonably anchored.
posted by 4x-news on Sep 27
Forex Capital Markets LLC, the largest Forex Dealer Member, recently announced that it would begin offering so-called “Fractional Pip Pricing” in an effort to reduce the bid-ask spreads it offers customers. Previously, most, if not all forex brokers that cater to retail forex investors, quoted forex rates out to four decimal places (i.e. 1.4101 USD/Euro). However, due to its strong liquidity relationships with banks that facilitate forex trading, FXCM has negotiated tighter bid-ask spreads for its customers, which will enable it to quote exchange rates to five decimal places (i.e. 1.41007 USD/Euro. While FXCM expects to narrow spreads further in the future, it remains to be seen whether the competition will follow suit.
posted by 4x-news on Sep 21
At 4:30 AM UK August Retail Sales m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.7%)
UK August Retail Sales y/y (exp 4.0%, prev 4.4%)
At 8:30 AM US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 321k, prev 319k)j
At 10:00 AM US August Leading Indicators (exp -0.2%, prev 0.4%)
At 12:00 PMUS September Philadelphia Fed Survey (exp 2.3, prev 0.0)
The greenback holds steady against the majors heading into the Thursday session, continuing to recover following the post-FOMC selloff. The dollar is trading just beneath the 1.40-barrier against the euro and near 2.0020 versus the sterling. We expect the 50-basis point Fed rate cut to weigh on the greenback over the coming weeks and foresee the currency to tumble to fresh lows against the euro and fall closer toward parity versus the Canadian dollar.
Economic data from the US in the coming session will include weekly jobless claims, August leading indicators and the September Philadelphia Fed survey. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to edge up slightly to 321k, from 319k from the previous week. August leading indicators are seen falling by 0.2%, compared with a 0.4% increase from July. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed survey is forecasted to improve to 2.3 for September, up from a flat reading in August.
