posted by 4x-news on Sep 13

At 4:00 AM Germany August WPI m/m (exp n/f, prev 0.4%)
Germany August WPI y/y (exp n/f, prev 2.6%)
At 4:30 AM UK July Trade Balance (exp –6.4 bln stg, prev –6.3 bln stg)
At 8:15 AM` Canada August Housing Starts (exp 220k units, prev 215.6k units)
At 8:30 AM Canada July New Housing Price Index (exp 0.6%, prev 0.7%)
US July Trade Deficit (exp $59 bln, prev 58.14 bln)
Canada July Trade Surplus (exp C$5.0 bln, prev C$ 5.3 bln)
The currency market remains biased for a softer dollar amid a dearth of US economic data at the start of the week – with commentary from Federal Reserve members garnering the lion’s share of traders’ attention. Ahead of the blackout period before next week’s FOMC meeting, a barrage of comments from Fed speakers revealed mixed sentiment among its members providing little insight into the coming deliberations. However, market participants are largely anticipating a 25-basis point cut in the Fed funds rate with some even calling for a preemptive 50-basis point reduction to jumpstart the economy and stave off potential recession.
Earlier in the session, Fed governor Mishkin sounded a dovish tone in his commentary, saying that risks to the inflation outlook is now more balanced given the greater downside risks to growth. He added that the Fed must remain vigilant on inflation, but it also needs to be attentive to keeping demand from falling beneath supply as well. His comments echo a similar tone to Lockhart’s and Yellen’s, who both suggested that policy should incorporate the recent downturn in US economic fundamentals. Lockhart said the recent payrolls number is very important and must be taken very seriously. Moreover, he said another key piece of economic data that will play a particularly key role in policy deliberations is consumer-spending data. This week’s retail sales report on Friday will bear additional significance since it will be the last piece of key data before the Fed’s meeting. Furthermore, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments on Tuesday will be closely scrutinized, who is scheduled to speak at the Bundesbank at 11:00 am.

posted by 4x-news on Sep 8

At 4:30 AM UK July Manufacturing Production m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.2%)
UK July Manufacturing Production y/y (exp 1.2%, prev 0.9%)
UK July Industrial Production m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
UK July Industrial Production y/y (exp 1.0%, prev 0.8%)
At 6:00 AM Germany July Industrial Orders m/m (exp –2.5%, prev 4.6%)
At 7:00 AM Bank of England Monetary Policy Decision (exp 5.75%, prev 5.75%)
At 7:45 AM ECB Monetary Policy Decision (exp 4.0%, prev 4.0%)
At 8:30 AM ECB Pres Trichet Press Conference
US Q2 Productivity (exp 2.4%, prev 1.8%)
US Q2 Labor Cost (exp 1.6%, prev 2.1%)
US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 330k, prev 334k)
US July Building Permits (exp –5.3%, prev –0.4%)
At 10:00 AM US August non-manufacturing ISM (exp 54.8, prev 55.8)
Canada August Ivey PMI
The yen maintains its strength against the majors in early Tokyo trading as persistent worries over the global economic outlook and credit conditions remain. The currency market will derive its direction from a barrage of economic data and central bank decisions on Thursday. Reports from the US continue to reveal further deterioration in the housing market, with traders pondering to what extent the FOMC will allow conditions to worsen before moving to ease the Federal funds rate.
Data slated for release today include US Q2 productivity, labor cost, weekly jobless claims, July building permits and August non-manufacturing ISM. Productivity is expected to improve to 2.4% in Q2, compared with 1.8% from the first quarter. Labor costs in Q2 are seen slipping to 1.6%, down from 2.1% in Q1. Weekly jobless claims are largely unchanged from the previous week, down slightly to 330k versus 334k. Meanwhile, the August non-manufacturing ISM survey is forecast to decline to 54.8 from 55.8 – but remain above the key 50-level, which distinguishes expansion from contraction.

posted by 4x-news on Sep 6

At 2:00 AM UK August Nationwide House Prices (exp 0.5%, prev 0.1%)
At 4:00 AM Germany August Unemployment Rate (exp 8.9%, prev 9.0%)
Germany August Unemployment Change (-30.0k, prev –45.0k)
At 4:30 AM UK July Consumer Credit (exp 875 mln stg, prev 874 mln stg)
At 8:30 AM Canada July PPI m/m (exp –0.5%, prev –1.3%)
Canada Q2 Current Account Balance (exp C$8.5 bln, prev C$6.49 bln)
US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 322.0k, prev 322.0k)
US Q2 GDP preliminary (exp 4.0%, prev 3.4%)
US Q2 PCE (exp 4.3%, prev 4.3%)
US Q2 core PCE (exp 1.4%, prev 1.4%)
Sharp swings in the currency market corresponded with the rebound in US equity bourses, with the yen bearing the brunt of the losses against the majors. The Japanese unit relinquished all of its previous session’s gains to stand unchanged from two trading days prior, hovering around 234 against the sterling and just beneath 159 versus the euro. Although the liquidity injections by global central banks have tempered the panic rampant in markets in recent weeks, the credit markets are still not out of the woods yet and we can expect periods of heightened volatility and risk aversion in the coming weeks.
The session ahead will see several key G7 data releases including UK August nationwide house prices, Germany August jobs report, UK July consumer credit, Canada Q2 current account balance, Canada July PPI, US weekly jobless claims and US Q2 GDP. The preliminary reading for second quarter growth in the US is expected to rise to 4.0%, versus 3.4% from the previous quarter, pointing towards robust economic activity that could sway the Fed to stand pat at its September meeting. Also to be closely watched will be the Q2 PCE, with the headline seen remaining unchanged at 4.3% and the core PCE reading steady at 1.4%.